by How Frank Beamer, Bryan Stinespring and Billy Hite re-incorporate Darren Evans into the Hokies’ backfield will be one of the most discussed topics heading into the 2010 season. The dominating argument on the message boards and blogs is a 50/50 split and Evans should be the grind it out back and Williams the home run threat. Meh.
Below and after the jump are typical rushing statistics for both Williams and Evans. I’ve also included my adjusted yards and adjusted yards per carry statistics. They’re nothing fancy. What I’ve done is eliminated Williams’ and Evans’ long rush for each game and recalculated total yards and yards per carry. So simply put, adjusted yards = yards – long and adjusted yards per carry = (yards – long) / (carries – 1).
Ryan Williams – 2009
| Opponent | Carries | Yards | Long | Adjusted Yards | YPC | Adjusted YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 13 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 5.46 | 3.25 |
| Marshall | 16 | 164 | 57 | 107 | 10.25 | 7.13 |
| Nebraska | 21 | 107 | 46 | 61 | 5.1 | 3.05 |
| Miami | 34 | 150 | 44 | 106 | 4.41 | 3.21 |
| Duke | 24 | 83 | 12 | 71 | 3.46 | 3.09 |
| Boston College | 18 | 159 | 31 | 128 | 8.83 | 7.53 |
| Georgia Tech | 14 | 100 | 66 | 34 | 7.14 | 2.62 |
| UNC | 23 | 96 | 25 | 71 | 4.17 | 3.23 |
| ECU | 26 | 179 | 46 | 133 | 6.88 | 5.32 |
| Maryland | 23 | 126 | 28 | 98 | 5.48 | 4.45 |
| NC State | 32 | 120 | 19 | 101 | 3.75 | 3.26 |
| UVa | 24 | 183 | 51 | 132 | 7.63 | 5.74 |
| Tennessee | 25 | 117 | 32 | 85 | 4.68 | 3.54 |
| 293 | 1655 | 489 | 1166 | 5.94 | 4.26 |
Darren Evans – 2008
| Opponent | Carries | Yards | Long | Adjusted Yards | YPC | Adjusted YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECU | 12 | 37 | 11 | 26 | 3.08 | 2.36 |
| Furman | 11 | 72 | 19 | 53 | 6.55 | 5.3 |
| Georgia Tech | 19 | 94 | 24 | 70 | 4.95 | 3.89 |
| UNC | 14 | 61 | 13 | 48 | 4.36 | 3.69 |
| Nebraksa | 21 | 72 | 19 | 53 | 3.43 | 2.65 |
| WKU | 21 | 79 | 10 | 69 | 3.76 | 3.45 |
| Boston College | 17 | 27 | 5 | 22 | 1.59 | 1.38 |
| Florida State | 15 | 77 | 23 | 54 | 5.13 | 3.86 |
| Maryland | 32 | 253 | 50 | 203 | 7.91 | 6.55 |
| Miami | 17 | 43 | 13 | 30 | 2.53 | 1.88 |
| Duke | 24 | 111 | 15 | 96 | 4.63 | 4.17 |
| UVa | 25 | 72 | 8 | 64 | 2.88 | 2.67 |
| Boston College | 31 | 114 | 30 | 84 | 3.68 | 2.8 |
| Cincinnati | 28 | 153 | 32 | 121 | 5.46 | 4.48 |
| 275 | 1228 | 272 | 967 | 4.37 | 3.6 |
Statistically speaking, when you take away what Williams does best, break the big run, he’s still lethal and can control a game on the ground. Williams’ adjusted yards per carry average for the 2009 season was 4.26, while  Evans’ yards per carry for 2008 is 4.37. That’s only .11 yards a carry more!
I love Darren, and as much as I’d love to have a loaded Evan Williams backfield, the numbers show RMFW is the best option.
Because the more bourbon references the better.
’)5 Responses to “Evans-Williams Statistical Comparison”
Trackbacks / Pingbacks:
Leave a Reply
Want a fancy avatar to go along with your comment? Gravatar.
1furrer4heisman on Jan 25, 2010 at 12:10 pm:
Evans’ best asset is his physical running style that wears down opposing defenses. Giving him carries early and then send a fresh Williams out against a tired defense can only lead to good things. Williams should be the primary back, but Evans is still a useful and efficient back. He rarely loses yards on a carry and is great in short-yardage situations. Also, as much as we though Evans was over-worked in 2008, Williams still had more carries in 2009. We can’t afford to wear him out like that again. I still think the exhaustive workload we gave Evans led to his injury. Pitchers and running backs wear down.
2Steve Lattimer on Jan 25, 2010 at 7:03 pm:
I’m still worried about this, specifically the number of ways Stiney could F this up. I agree Williams deserves to be the number one guy, but what I hope is that we can get something where they are both on the field. Off the top of my head I’m thinking of some type of jet/fly series with Williams as the sweeper and Evans as the dive back with TT booting out.
3Jim on Jan 25, 2010 at 8:20 pm:
I agree with furrer4heisman. Ryan Williams is the better running back, but we desperately need split the carries to avoid burning these guys out and giving them bad injuries. I also like the idea of starting Evans to physically drain the defense and then bring in a fresh Ryan Williams to run circles around them.
4cgb on Jan 25, 2010 at 11:07 pm:
I’ll preface this by saying I love Darren Evans and everything he did for us in 2008.
@F4H I agree that Evans has proved he can be dependable to push the pile and always keep the ball moving forward. That will come in handy to start or close out a game. However, I still would want Williams to get >75% of the carries next year, as he can do it all. As far as the Evans injury, I basically got the impression that our medical staff was a 1950s MASH unit. These are college kids and not NFL veterans, they recover from taking a beating quickly.
@Steve This is what the Evans Williams 100 Proof backfield would look like. http://www.collegegameballs.com/2010/01/25/what-the-evans-williams-backfield-might-look-like/
@Jim, F4H The Giants had a lot of success in 2007-08 with Jacobs knocking them down and Ward and Bradshaw running past them. So I do like this idea a lot. However in college, there are playmakers, like RMFW, who should be on the field as much as possible, because they’re head and shoulders above the rest of the players on the field. I know Williams had said a couple of times he prefers a lot of carries because he’s able to get into the grove of the game. We can’t expect him to get into the game and break a big gain after only a couple of snaps.