by Some of the most intense arguments and / or pissing contests throughout the college football season revolve around conference rankings. Why? It’s another way for fans to make themselves feel better or puff out their chest. “Yeah… we were only 6-6, but we play in the best conference.” “Dude there’s no way your 8-4 team is better than mine, we play in the…” Out of conference schedules are brought to the forefront of any discussion of what team or conference is better than another. Instead of just tossing out bullshit arguments I used some logic and math to nail down something concrete. This is what I came up with.
The out of conference strength for any team is calculated by:
St = (((0.9 * H) + (1.1 * A) + (0.7 * h) + (0.8 * a) -(0.9 * C)) / (H + A + h + a + C))
H = Home games against BCS teams (and Notre Dame)
A = Neutral or Away games against BCS teams (and Notre Dame)
h = Home games against non-BCS teams
a = Away games against non-BCS teams
C = Cupcakes, games against any team that doesn’t fall into one of the above categories ie 1aa teams.
Mathmatically speaking the formula is simple enough. My logic was to penalize teams for playing cupcakes and reward them for playing BCS conference teams. Away games are weighed more just because on average it is harder to win on the road (duh). Originally I subtracted one for each cupcake played, but this
made me change my mind.
The out of conference strength for any conference is calculated by:
Sc = SUM(St) / COUNT(St)
Again pretty simple math, just take average.
The results (higher indicates stronger out of conference schedule).
Pac 10 Sc = 0.653
Big 12 Sc = 0.564583
Big Ten Sc = 0.4863
Big East Sc = 0.44
SEC Sc = 0.425
ACC Sc = 0.377083
Thoughts…
- I never would have thought the ACC would be last. I’m beginning to think I’m a homer. I never would have thought the Big 12 would be second.
- The Pac 10 plays very few cupcakes, not to mention a round-robin schedule
- The teams that finish towards the top of their division / conference standings play a tougher out of conference schedule.
- Massive quantities of numbers can be prescribed instead of Ambien
What do you guys think?
You can see the crunched numbers for each team in decadent tables complete with repeating decimals after the jump.
Warning! These numbers were calculated late at night. It is quite possible something is wrong. If you find an error just let me know.
| ACC | ||||||
| H | A | h | a | C | St | |
| Florida State | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.55 |
| Boston College | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 |
| Maryland | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.45 |
| Wake Forest | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.425 |
| Clemson | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 |
| North Carolina State | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Virginia Tech | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.875 |
| Georgia Tech | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.55 |
| North Carolina | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Miami | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.475 |
| Virginia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.375 |
| Duke | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.025 |
| 0.377083333 | ||||||
| Big 12 | ||||||
| H | A | h | a | C | St | |
| Missouri | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.425 |
| Nebraska | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Kansas | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.775 |
| Kansas State | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.025 |
| Colorado | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.825 |
| Iowa State | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.775 |
| Texas | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.725 |
| Oklahoma | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Texas Tech | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.325 |
| Oklahoma State | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.35 |
| Baylor | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.45 |
| Texas A&M | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 |
| 0.564583333 | ||||||
| Big East | ||||||
| H | A | h | a | C | St | |
| Cincinnati | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.52 |
| Pittsburgh | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.52 |
| West Virginia | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Rutgers | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.16 |
| Connecticut | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 |
| South Florida | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.2 |
| Louisville | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.48 |
| Syracuse | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.54 |
| 0.44 | ||||||
| Big Ten | ||||||
| H | A | h | a | C | St | |
| Penn State | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.35 |
| Ohio State | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.775 |
| Michigan State | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 |
| Iowa | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.45 |
| Northwestern | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 |
| Minnesota | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.45 |
| Wisconsin | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 |
| Illinois | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Purdue | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.85 |
| Michigan | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.35 |
| Indiana | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.425 |
| 0.486363636 | ||||||
| Pac 10 | ||||||
| H | A | h | a | C | St | |
| USC | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.966666667 |
| Oregon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Oregon State | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.266666667 |
| California | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.366666667 |
| Arizona | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.3 |
| Stanford | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Arizona State | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.3 |
| UCLA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Washington State | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.833333333 |
| Washington | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 |
| 0.653333333 | ||||||
| SEC | ||||||
| H | A | h | a | C | St | |
| Florida | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.35 |
| Georgia | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.55 |
| Vanderbilt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.375 |
| South Carolina | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.45 |
| Tennesse | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.75 |
| Kentucky | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.375 |
| Alabama | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 |
| Mississippi | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -0.075 |
| LSU | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Auburn | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.35 |
| Arkansas | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 |
| Mississippi State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.375 |
| 0.425 | ||||||
’)Leave a Reply
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1Brian on May 20, 2009 at 8:01 am:
For the ACC, those three ‘2’s in the upper-case C column really bother me. That’s one of the reasons why the ACC finishes last.
Only the Big East matches the ACC in terms of percentage of conference who have scheduled 2 cupcakes in one season (20%), and Big East teams have ONE more out of conference game to play every year.
For shame, ACC. I’m looking at you, Research triangle-ites … Duke, UNC, NC State …
2Brian on May 20, 2009 at 8:04 am:
Make that 25% … you get the idea.
3Winfield Featherston on May 20, 2009 at 8:21 am:
Those numbers are depressing. The conference is coming off a “fairly successful” season only to have weak numbers like that. I am not surprised to see the SEC so low.
4JD on May 20, 2009 at 6:22 pm:
I understand your attempt to keep it simple, but you need more variables. A team that plays a winless bcs conference team scores higher on the road than a team that plays an undefeated powerhouse at home. The logic is seriously flawed.
5DoubleB on May 20, 2009 at 8:47 pm:
Any methodology that finds Texas non-conference schedule (@ Wyoming, UL-Monroe, UTEP, and Central Florida) is better than Oklahoma’s (neutral BYU, @ Miami, Idaho State, and Tulsa) has some flaws. Does anyone believe Texas has LESS of a chance to come out of its OOC slate with a worse record than Oklahoma?
I think there is far too much difference in the equation between non-BCS FBS teams and FCS teams. While there is a substantial quality difference between say the Sun Belt and the top FCS conferences, the difference for BCS teams is close to zero.
The minimal difference between BCS opponents and C-USA and Sun Belt teams in the equation belies the actual difference in quality between the two (minus a few notable exceptions: Boise, Utah, TCU).
6CP on May 22, 2009 at 5:23 pm:
One thing you could add is to weight non-BCS school games against foes ranked in the top 25. As a Pac-10/Oregon fan this would help increase the rating. Oregon, for example, has one non-BCS at home and one non-BCS away. Of course, the home game is against Utah and the away game is Boise State. As DoubleB points out these are 2 of the three notable exceptions.
7cgb on May 23, 2009 at 10:13 pm:
Once the season begins I’m going to incorporate wins and losses into the formula.
8Scott on Jun 10, 2009 at 8:13 am:
For FSU, you have them listed with 3 OOC BCS games. They have South Florida, UF and BYU. Though BYU is a quality OOC opponent, they are not BCS.
9Joe on Jun 23, 2009 at 2:44 pm:
Penn State should be ashamed. What a joke.
10Zach on Jul 22, 2009 at 10:45 am:
SEC is the toughest conference. Three years straight thy have won the national chamionship. Statistics show that every year there’s only 2 or 3 teams that finish below .500 no other conference can say that. The only reason the PAC-10 isso good is because of USC who always loses to a nobody late. Florida will repeat as champs making it 4 straight titles for the SEC.
11Hookers4Jesus on Sep 15, 2009 at 7:34 pm:
The gators are pathetic. they play, get this…. Troy, Florida International, and Charleston Southern for their 3 Non conference games. WTF. that is some amazing competition. no wonder they get 10+ wins a year. none of those games should count towards stats or w/l column. there is only 2 top 25 teams on their entire schedule right now! Pathetic team. Sec is a joke for the most part. they play division 2 teams to often and get far to much credit them. schedule some real non conference games and then we will see them playing in the holiday bowl if they are lucky. props to Bama for going into Va Tech for one of their non conference games. Bama might be the only real team in the Sec that has any credibility.
12NoleCC on Sep 16, 2009 at 7:38 am:
@11, The Gators have a 4th non-conference game in FSU. Although the way FSU’s season is going, they might barely be a peg above the others.
13Hagar on Sep 17, 2009 at 1:57 pm:
Hookers4Jesus?…you’re using that name and talking about credibility?…really?
PLEASE list YOUR favorite team and their ooconference schedule;…since you’re blasting the Gators and dooming them to the Holiday Bowl, I’m gonna bet you’re a Bucknutt…still sore, are ya? yeah, that’s understandable.
Utah backed out of their game with Florida this year, Troy was a top 30-ish team to start and FSU was in at #18…..Not looking for props on the OOC but its far from what you want to make it out to be. Don’t worry, tOSU will still win that all impressive Big11 Title…or tie/share it….since they refuse to create a conference Championship game. If Bama’s got the cred, in your opinion, they can bring it to Atlanta for a rematch and that will decide the bigger question!
14Utah Man on Oct 19, 2009 at 11:28 pm:
Hager -
Just to clear up a misunderstanding Florida was never on Utah’s schedule for this year (2009) or in the near future so they never could have backed out of anything. I believe that Utah would take that game in a heartbeat if it was offered to them.
15Bruce in Austin on Oct 30, 2009 at 6:03 pm:
This analysis is a decent start. I’ve often wondered how the various conferences and teams stacked up. The flaws as pointed out above would require much more complicated algorithms involving won/loss records. You need to calculate this for nonBCS conferences too.
The perception that the SEC is so great and the Big East and ACC deserve to be BCS conferences is fed by dominance of the Eastern Sports Promotional Network, better known as ESPN. If the Mountain West and WAC were in the Eastern Time Zone they would be BCS conferences. Boise St beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, Utah wailed Alabama last year, and Texas is afraid to play TCU for good reason.
The solution is for the NCAA to take over the scheduling and have a round robin across conference schedule for OOC games so that BCS conference teams face each other once over a ten or twenty year span, much like NCAA basketball where conferences have “challenges” pitting teams against each other on a given week.
It was a HUGE deal here a couple of years ago when Texas played Ohio St., but no one of that caliber has graced Texas OOC schedule for years before or has/will since. Those games were close and exciting. It’s terminally boring to sit in 95 degree heat and watch a 56-10 game two weeks in a row against inferior competition. Texas is #3 right now on the basis of being 2-0 against the Sun Belt Conference. Big Whoop.
Surely the NCAA can step in and improve what is far and away the best sports entertainment in the country.
16rob on Nov 6, 2009 at 9:49 pm:
hmmm, so if a bcs team played say tcu or cinci or boise right now, they would fall back in your system. I think the caliber of team is a factor. The way you have this set up, a win against the washington state cougars trumps a win against boise.
17Stephen Miller on Nov 13, 2009 at 10:53 pm:
I think you’re on to something here. I would like to see more algorithms used on this. Do you have any other ideas? I am actually in school for computer programming and have been extremely interested in writing programs about college for about 3 years. Ironically, I transferred the University of Utah this semester.
“he solution is for the NCAA to take over the scheduling and have a round robin across conference schedule for OOC games so that BCS conference teams face each other once over a ten or twenty year span, much like NCAA basketball where conferences have “challenges” pitting teams against each other on a given week.”
I was thinking it would be nice if the last week we could pick match-ups somehow. Like everyone has to play a team within 5 ranks of them from another conference. Your idea sounds better though.
Email me if you are interested in the football stats. I would be willing to do a lot of the work while you could come up with ideas.