I’m Buying Florida State

by cgb on Tue, Aug 12, 2008 at 8:45 pm

Florida State a former member of college football’s elite is notably absent from the pre-season coaches poll. I am wondering why everyone so is down on Florida State. Their record over the last three seasons has been an abysmal 22-17 and they haven’t beaten Florida since the Zook administration. However I say buy low sell high.

Florida State realized their main problem was with their anemic offense and outdated offensive system. They began fixing that problem when they jettisoned dead weight Jeff Bowden and hired Jimbo Fisher. Their offensive struggles continued last year, the first in the Fisher system. However, I think year two is when you will begin to see the payoff. The players have gained experience by playing a year in the system and Fisher has been able to recruit new players and identify which current players are the best fit.

The schedule also sets up very favorably for the Noles.

Western Carolina
Chattanooga
Wake Forest
Colorado
@ Miami (FL)
@ North Carolina State
Virginia Tech
@ Georgia Tech
Clemson
Boston College
@ Maryland
Florida

Their four toughest games: Colorado, Virginia Tech, Clemson and Florida are all at home and they should be favored in (and win) every other game.

At a minimum I have them going 9-3. However, this could be the legitimate National Championship contender out of the ACC and not Clemson. What if all the cylinders click early and often is it really inconceivable for them to be undefeated with Florida coming to town? I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility. In fact, I think at worst they will be 10-1 when they play the Gators.

Even though they have been down they aren’t out. FSU has talent and that matters.

18 Responses to “I’m Buying Florida State”

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1rjsplow on Aug 13, 2008 at 8:35 am:

I’m sorry, but this entire prediction is way off base. I’d like to point out three pretty important things that you failed to mention about FSU this season:

1) The cheating scandal leaves multiple starters from both sides of the ball (but highly concentrated on defense) out of the first two games. Yes, I realize that they eased up on their schedule for those games in anticipation of the suspensions, but that has to disrupt team chemistry and will take some time during the season to overcome. While is exactly where you don’t want to have to overcome chemistry problems.

2) Offensive line. Horrible, and has shown no signs of improvement over the past 3-4 years. Like in prior years, the line is young and relatively inexperienced. There just isn’t any evidence that it will improve significantly this season, which it must do in order for FSU to start scoring points.

3) The “I’m buying FSU” phenomenon that has occurred with regularity over the past 3-4 years. Every year at this time some people look over their recruiting rankings, throws in a little history of past dominance and combines those two with a lot of “well, it can’t get any worse, can it?” and picks FSU as a sleeper. And it never comes to fruition. They have the same quarterback, same offensive line, a defense with diminishing returns over the recent past and of course they have the same head “coach” who doesn’t actually, you know, coach. Until there’s an extreme regime change, you’ll be looking at a middle-of-the-road ACC team for years to come…
2cgb on Aug 13, 2008 at 9:03 am:

I realize FSU has been a sleeper pick in the last couple of seasons and have failed. I should have pointed that out. Losing those players hurts but I would actually argue that when they come back for Wake Forest they will be more fired up to win since they had to miss 2 weeks.

I really believe this is the year FSU puts it together this year. I guess we will just have to wait and see.
3Wes on Aug 13, 2008 at 10:02 am:

Wow…CGB, what do you have against Clemson? FSU?? Really??
4rjsplow on Aug 13, 2008 at 11:43 am:

I appreciate the quick response, cgb, and I have to admit that, while I don’t share your optimism, I think the team could be one of the more compelling to watch as the season progresses regardless of the results. It’s fascinating to watch a team that probably does less with more talent than any other in the country, it’s like a bizarro “how to” in a sense.
5JustinFSU on Aug 13, 2008 at 2:56 pm:

rjsplow, you do realize that schedules are made years in adavance. FSU had schedule W. Carolina and Chattanooga about 2 or 3 years ago. The schedule was not made “in anticipation” of the suspensions.

Also outside of your #1 reason, reason #2 and #3 can also be said about Clemson.

The Noles will enjoy their roles as underdogs and it will pay off.
6doubledcr on Aug 13, 2008 at 3:20 pm:

What about Wake Forest? There is a definite possibility they will beat the noles. They at least deserve to be on your toughest games list…
Also, when you say that they will end at a minimum of 9-3, who do you think they will beat out of their difficult games and who do you think they will lose to?

-todd
7doubledcr on Aug 13, 2008 at 3:23 pm:

What about B.C., too? And why do you think Colorado has a shot at them? I’d say Maryland or GT are tougher games…
8cgb on Aug 13, 2008 at 3:36 pm:

I think they will beat Colorado, Virginia Tech, Clemson. Wake will also be a tough game. I didn’t put them on the list because I think FSU’s speed and strentgh will be too much for Wake to overcome.
9doubledcr on Aug 13, 2008 at 3:57 pm:

Oh, o.k. That sounds reasonable. I don’t think they have a chance against Florida, not this year at least. However, you never know when it comes to UF-FSU.
10noleinmobtown on Aug 14, 2008 at 1:37 pm:

FSU, is primed to have a season at least in 9-3 range. Don’t be surprised if they pull a Kansas or Mizzou this year. Right now QB play and the O-Line are the big questions but the coaches seem to think that line will do fine this year. As for the QB situation we have three talented players and someone is going to get it done this year. Also the suspensions last for the first three games. They will be playing in the wake game without some of their best players. So that could be one of the toughest games of the season, with the loss of some key players.
111st_and_NOLE on Aug 14, 2008 at 2:05 pm:

Wow, some things need to be cleared up…

#1: The players suspended at the beginning of the season for the academic fraud WILL be suspended for the Wake game also. I believe there’s 11 players suspended the first three games. The Colorado game will be FSU’s game at full strength.

However, if FSU can get by Wake with all the suspensions and without suffering any injuries, they’ll be in great shape. Many of FSU’s starters will be very, very fresh for the Colorado game and the rest of the year.

#2: FSU’s OL is extremely young. In fact, there’s not a single JR or SR scholarship OL on the roaster – except for a very late JUCO transfer they received only a few days before fall camp. Despite the fact there’s 8 freshmen, 3 sophomores, and 1 JUCO transfer – these are ALL Rick Trickett’s guys and his types of players. Even though they’re young, Trickett is much more excited about this years OL vs last years. He feels this unit is an upgrade over last year. Coming from Trickett, it means a lot because he doesn’t BS around.
12Nole inATL on Aug 14, 2008 at 2:37 pm:

Alright guys, lets clear some things up. Preston Parker is suspended 2 games, coming back in time for wake…the rest are suspended 3 games, coming back for Colorado. The Colorado game is in JACKSONVILLE..i guess that’s kind of like home. JustinFSU: you’re wrong…some teams are scheduled years in advance( like our home and home series with Oklahoma) however, we DID schedule two D2 schools early on purpose this year..Bowden even said in an interview we couldve had the Monday night game week 1 again this tear but he turned it down….crap schools can get put on the shed just several months in adavance…I love the Message of the article though…we all just need to watch our FACTS…Go Noles
13chris on Aug 14, 2008 at 5:47 pm:

Justin, most games are scheduled years in advance, but not all, and the Western Carolina and Chattanooga games were not scheduled until after the 2007 season was over. And both the AD and Coach Bowden acknowledged that they lightened up a bit on the scheduling due to the suspensions. FSU just added Maine to the 2009 schedule and needs to add one more – which probably won’t happen until after this season. But the 2009 BYU game has been scheduled for some time. And the 2010 BYU and Oklahoma games have been on the schedule for a couple years.
14brian on Aug 14, 2008 at 6:54 pm:

Good analysis FSU has an extremely talented, young team. So if not this year, I definitely see them as national championship contenders for the next couple of years. As far as their o-line, it is young but it is very talented. If the o-line holds up (arguably the teams only weakness), then this team will do amazing things.
15Just Me on Aug 14, 2008 at 10:01 pm:

Dude…. Those chicks are hot.
16delawarenole on Aug 14, 2008 at 11:09 pm:

Justinnole just to correct you on one thing. We added two teams to this schedule in the past 12 months – guess who? The first two.

Make no mistake we did that for a reason. Coaches have even said as much in interviews on sites likes Warchant and Scout.

I think it was a great move.
17Nolebidder74 on Aug 15, 2008 at 2:13 am:

rjsplow, your third argument is highly illogical. This is akin to saying that because you guessed heads four times in a row and were wrong, you are going to be wrong guessing heads again. What do past “predictions” have to do with anything? If this were a stock, you could support your argument with the important fact that the management team must change before anything positive can transpire–well, guess what? the management team DID change. You have one of the best OCs in the game coupled with perhaps the best OL coach in college football, and great NEW assistants all around at almost every coaching position….
the only valid point you really have is the OL issue, but Trickett believes this is a very talented core he has to work with, and by season’s end, I can guarantee you–barring injuries–you will see one of the top 5 OLs in the ACC. My prediction is 3-4 losses in 2008 with a Top-5 finish in 2009…. keep your eye out for, potentially, the next Steve Young in this kid Ponder.